According to a final field survey by Global InfoAnalytics, Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) is not able to catch up to opposition leader John Dramani Mahama (JDM) of the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
According to the study, Bawumia trails Mahama with 37.3% of the devoted voters, while Mahama leads with 51.1%. With 1.3% of the vote, other contenders trail behind independents Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten (AKK) and Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB), with 4.1% and 6.2%, respectively.
Mahama continues to lead with 49.3% of likely voters vs Bawumia’s 35.9% in the unweighted likely voters’ model.
The study indicates that 16% of potential non-voters identify as NPP supporters, underscoring voter apathy as a major obstacle for the party. In comparison, just 3% of the NDC’s supporters fall into this group. Of those who say they will not vote, 38% are floating voters and 39% are those who did not reveal political affiliations.
With a significant 31-point advantage (54% to 23%) over Bawumia among floating voters, as well as an additional 18-point advantage among voters who declined to reveal their party affiliations, Mahama has a significant lead over Bawumia. Mahama also has an increasing advantage over Bawumia among first-time voters, outpacing her 46% to 38%; this is an improvement from a tie result in July 2024.
One concerning development for Bawumia is that, despite being a target audience for his campaign, his support among Muslims has been declining, falling by about 4% between July and October of 2024.
Additionally, the poll shows changes among those who voted for President Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020. Seventy percent of those voters still support Bawumia, while 19% have moved to support Mahama and five percent have each moved to Kyeremanten and Bediako. 20% and 37% of 2020 NPP voters in pivotal areas like Greater Accra and Central, respectively, now favor Mahama.
After including the Bono area in his column since the July survey, Mahama now leads in 12 regions in terms of regional domination. Greater Accra, Central, Western, Western North, Bono, Bono East, Northern, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Oti, and Volta areas are currently under his charge. However, in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions, Bawumia is in the lead.
Both Nana Kwame Bediako and Alan Kyeremanten are becoming serious competitors, particularly in the Ashanti and Eastern regions, where their combined influence is undermining Bawumia’s hegemony. Bawumia is still leading with 66% in the Ashanti area, followed by Mahama at 22%, Bediako at 7%, and Kyeremanten at 4%. The NPP wants to win 85% of the vote in this region.
In addition, Mahama is outperforming the parliamentary candidates of his party in 56 of the 111 seats that were assessed, while Bawumia is trailing his candidates in 79 of them, indicating the possible influence of Bediako and Kyeremanten on the fortunes of the ruling party.
The poll underscores the central issues influencing voters ahead of the December elections: the economy, jobs, and education. The economy remains the top concern, with 70% of respondents citing it as their primary issue, followed by jobs (62%) and education (48%). Voters are also influenced by the current economic conditions, with 55% highlighting them as a key factor, followed by party performance (40%), candidate credibility (34%), and party manifestos (28%).
On manifesto favorability, the NDC leads the NPP by a 14-point margin, with the NPP’s manifesto holding a net favorability rating of +6 points.
The poll also reveals discontent with the country’s direction, as 62% of voters believe Ghana is heading in the wrong direction. This sentiment is strongest among NDC voters (88%), floating voters (74%), and supporters of other parties (76%). In contrast, 64% of NPP voters believe the country is on the right track.
President Nana Akufo-Addo’s job performance approval stands at 36%, with 59% disapproving. The government’s overall performance is rated as poor or very poor by 49% of voters, while 30% rate it as good or very good.
As the December elections approach, Mahama’s lead in key regions and among crucial voter demographics positions him as the front-runner, while Bawumia and the NPP face increasing challenges, particularly from independent candidates and voter dissatisfaction with the economy.
